[CB DRAFT] ECON104: Principles of Austrian Economics II
Topic outline
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This course is designed to extend your knowledge of the principles of the Austrian school of economics. It is recommended that students complete ECON103: Principles of Austrian Economics I before this course to enhance their understanding. The course draws on the work of several scholars in the Austrian school tradition, mainly Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Friedrich Hayek, and Hans Hermann Hoppe. It focuses on the concepts of economic calculation, time preference, interest rates, business cycle theory, the economics of security, and intellectual property.
ECON103 explained the main types of actions that humans undertake to economize; this course moves to discuss the features of an impersonal market economic order, beginning with one of the most critical concepts: economic calculation. For example, Mises explains how a market order, where economic production meets the demands of consumers, is only possible with the system of free enterprise and private property, as that is the only system in which the owners of capital are able to calculate the costs and benefits of their actions rationally. This point is one of Mises' most important contributions to economics and forms the essence of his devastating critique of socialist economic planning, which has not been refuted a century later. The course also introduces the work of Friedrich Hayek on the concept of spontaneous order and how it helps us understand economic phenomena as the emergent result of human action and not human design. The different conceptions of rationality in economics and how order can emerge rationally from individual action are then discussed.
The bulk of the course explores the basics of the Austrian analysis of money, beginning with the concept of time preference, which could be considered the most important and useful concept to learn in economics. After explaining the importance and significance of time preference, how the Austrian school views time preference as the determinant of interest rates is analyzed. The concepts of credit and banking are introduced, followed by Mises' typology of money and the distinction between money and credit.
With that background, the Austrian theory of the business cycle is introduced. As interest rates on the free market are a reflection of time preference, an increase in the supply of credit that is treated as money leads to the distortion of interest rates, and the price of money, causing economic miscalculation in the capital markets, leading to malinvestments. We study this highly important theory from the works of several economists to get a full picture over two lectures. Then, we examine the market for security and national defense, analyzing the fallacy that these goods can only be provided by a monopoly, illustrating how they can be, and in fact are, produced by the free market, and how problems of insecurity and conflict around the world can best be understood as a result of the absence of a free market for security.
As we move toward the end of the course, the topic of intellectual property is discussed. We study the work of Stephan Kinsella, who argues that ideas and non-scarce goods cannot be property, and the attempt to treat them as such makes no sense economically or legally. The claim that intellectual property rights enhance innovation and economic well-being is scrutinized. Also, the connection between Austrian economics and Bitcoin is discussed. How does studying Austrian economics help us understand Bitcoin, and what does Bitcoin teach us about Austrian economics? We conclude with a discussion of the stock-to-flow numerical model of Bitcoin price and whether it poses a challenge to the Austrian method of economics. Ammous is a professor of Economics and the author of three books on the subject of economics.
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BEFORE YOU START THE COURSE, READ THIS FOREWORD. It is a brief primer on the conceptual framework and the theoretical aspects of the Austrian school of economics , and it puts the school's main views in context of the broader economics discipline
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In the first unit, we discuss the economic calculation problem as first described by Mises. We discover that the real problem with socialism is that there is no economic calculation without a market for capital goods. We then discuss why capital markets play an important role in allocating resources in an economy, and the different ways socialists have attempted to get around this problem are explored. Finally, we examine the failure of modern academia to understand the economic calculation problem.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 2 hours.
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How does a business determine which combination of resources is best to make a product? The answer is prices. Without pricing for capital goods, investment is impossible since potential future outputs cannot be measured by any current standard. Austrian economics recognizes the critical role prices play in helping people allocate limited resources efficiently, which in turn benefits society. Watch this lecture to examine the role of economic calculation in an economy. In the video, Saifedean explores the calculation problem that socialist central planners encounter and explains the important role of capital markets in allocating resources.
Topics covered include:
- Market for capital
- The economic calculation problem (ECP)
- Modern academia's failure to understand the ECP
- Inability of central planners to rationally allocate resources
- Modern academia fails to understand the economic calculation problem.
- Lack of incentives is not the greatest problem faced by socialist regimes.
- Allocating capital sufficiently is impossible without a market for capital goods.
- If government owns all capital resources, there can be no market for capital goods.
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Spontaneous order attempts to explain how human conventions and institutions emerge as the unintended consequences of the actions of a myriad of individuals, pointing to the limits of rationalism and the conscious shaping of social life. Watch this lecture to examine how spontaneous order is achieved through distributed knowledge on the market. In the video, Saifedean explores the concept of spontaneous order, focusing on the work of Friedrich Hayek and Vernon Smith.
Topics covered include:
- Distributed knowledge
- Rational constructivism and its shortcomings
- The important role spontaneous order fulfilled in the process of selection on the market
Key points
- Complex goods and even language are examples of things that emerge through spontaneous order
- Reason is good at providing variation but poor at selection, which is better left to ecological processes
- Spontaneous Order can be understood as orders and patterns that emerge out of human action and interaction, not through human designs
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In this second unit, Saifedean discusses Hayek's concept of spontaneous order. He starts off by explaining how distributed knowledge can lead to order, then discusses the different European philosophical thinking on this topic. Finally, Vernon Smith's work on Constructivist rationality vs. Ecological rationality is explored.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 2 hours.
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Spontaneous order attempts to explain how human conventions and institutions emerge as the unintended consequences of the actions of a myriad of individuals, pointing to the limits of rationalism and the conscious shaping of social life. Watch this lecture to examine how spontaneous order is achieved through distributed knowledge on the market. In the video, Saifedean explores the concept of spontaneous order, focusing on the work of Friedrich Hayek and Vernon Smith.
Topics covered include:
- Distributed knowledge
- Rational constructivism and its shortcomings
- The important role spontaneous order fulfilled in the process of selection on the market
Key points
- Complex goods and even language are examples of things that emerge through spontaneous order
- Reason is good at providing variation but poor at selection, which is better left to ecological processes
- Spontaneous Order can be understood as orders and patterns that emerge out of human action and interaction, not through human designs
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 2, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- Scientism and Historicism
- A deeper look into the work of Vernon Smith
- The shortcomings of the Standard Socioeconomic Science Model
- Problems that arise when economists propose regulations to fix market failures
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The third unit focuses on Time Preference. Time preference is an important element of the Austrian School of Economics and is used to understand the relationship between savings, investment, and interest rates. Saifedean discusses the work of Bohm Bawerk, Mises, and Hoppe. You will explore Bohm Bawerk's Positive Theory of Capital and discover how interest rates are formed through the lens of human action. Following a discussion of Mises' criticism of Bohm Bawerk's work, we conclude the unit by introducing Hans Hermann Hoppe's work on time preference and discuss how it impacts our daily life and society as a whole.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 2 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- describe how money emerges from spontaneous order on the market;
- explain why humans value present goods more than identical future goods;
- differentiate between the productivity theories of interest and Bohm-Bawerk's Capital theory;
- explain why humans inherently devalue goods in the future compared to the present;
- express that interest rates emerge on their own because present goods are worth more than future goods; and
- analyze the trade-offs between your present and future self and the important role this plays in life.
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What is the time preference theory of interest rates? In Austrian economics, time preference theory explains interest rates based on people's spending preferences today versus in the future. In other words, time preference looks at how people value current consumption over future consumption. Some believe that consumers prefer future goods. For example, a person may crave ice in summer and not in the winter. In this situation, it is not the ice itself that is good and is being compared since the physical property of the ice does not change; rather, the satisfaction ice brings in different weathers. In the video, Saifedean explains the concept of time preference and how it impacts all aspects of human life.
Topics covered include:
- Bohm Bawerk's Positive Theory of Capital
- Time preference and how interest rates are formed
- How time preference impacts your life and society
- The importance of low time preference for prosperity in a society
Key points:
- Humans value present goods more than future goods
- Interest rates form spontaneously from human action
- Low time preference is crucial for prosperity in society
- Trades between your present and future self are the most important trades in your life
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 3, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- Hard money
- Personal time preference
- How banks create money through debt
- Distinguishing between saving and investing
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With the foundation laid in Unit 3, we can now look into how interest rates are formed. Focusing on the important role of time preference, Unit 4 discusses the work of Mises on originary interest and the distinct difference between interest and profit. The work of Murray Rothbard is then discussed with a focus on the capitalist's important role in production and the discounting of future vs. present goods. Finally, we take a look at the history of interest rates and the work of Joseph Schumpeter.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 2 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- explain originary interest as the discount of future goods against present goods;
- analyze the difference between profit and interest as defined by Mises;
- explain the importance and function of the capitalist in the production of goods;
- describe how interest rates can emerge on the market as a result of valuations of individual people; and
- explain how the law of time preference dictates that present money is
worth more than present expectations of the same amount of future money.
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In general, Austrian theory assumes that social time preferences determine the relationship between total consumption and total savings, and thus the amount of total investment expenditure. Menger and Mises argued that individual time preferences determine interest rates. As a rule, current products are valued higher than future products. This is because creditors give up some of their current profits. So, the interest rate phenomenon is a cost that the creditor has to bear. Watch this lecture to examine how interest rates are formed on the market and the role of time preference in this process.
Topics covered include:
- Originary interest
- Profit vs. interest
- The history of interest rates
- The capitalist's role in production
- The value of present vs. future goods
Key points:
- Interest is a naturally emergent spontaneous phenomenon
- Without someone providing the capital, no production could be possible
- Present money is worth more than present expectations of the same amount of future money
- Time preference manifests in originary interest: discount of future goods against present goods
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 4, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- Interest, deflation, and how this could impact productivity
- How Bitcoin's deflationary properties could impact capital markets • The effects of increases and decreases in the money supply in an economy
- How a mismatch in individual time preference causes lending and borrowing
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In unit 5 we focus on explaining and defining the concepts of money and banking as understood by Mises. His book, The Theory of Money and Credit, was written in 1912 and has formed the foundation of Austrian monetary theory for more than a century. In this unit you will explore the topology of money, followed by an in-depth discussion of fiduciary media and the consequences of its issuance by banks.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 3 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- differentiate between money in the narrower sense and money substitutes as described in Mises’ Typology of Money;
- explain the term "fiduciary media" as described by Mises;
- differentiate between commodity credit and circulation credit;
- describe maturity matching, also known as the "golden rule" in banking;
- describe the process involved in lending of fiduciary media;
- differentiate between a bank's solvency and liquidity; and
- evaluate whether the issuance of fiduciary media would exist on a free market.
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Mises' theory of money and credit argues that money began as a solution to the problem of exchange. People needed a better means of exchange than directly exchanging one commodity for another. For Mises, money is basically anything that is used as a medium of exchange. Watch this lecture to examine the topology of money, the issuance of fiduciary media by banks, and the consequences thereof. The second half of the course explores how digitization is leading us to rethink the fundamental phenomenology of money.
Topics covered include:
- Types of money
- Fiduciary media
- The Golden Rule in banking
- The Solvency and Liquidity of banks
- Commodity credit vs. circulation credit
Key points:
- Fiduciary media is money substitutes not backed by money holdings
- The lending of fiduciary media increases the supply of the medium of exchange
- The lending of fiduciary media does not require anyone to forgo a present good
- Money is, in essence, a medium of exchange. Its other functions are derivative from this
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 5, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- The work of Antal Fekete
- The Bitcoin lightning network
- Can fiduciary media be created on top of Bitcoin?
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Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) has its roots in the work of Mises and Hayek. Hayek was awarded the 1974 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences (jointly with Gunnar Myrdal) for some of his work on this theory. Unit 6 looks at the Austrian Business Cycle Theory as first described by Mises. In this theory, we see business cycles as a result of excessive growth in bank credit due to artificially low interest rates set by central banks. In this unit, Saifedean explains how the expansion of credit causes miscalculation, which leads to malinvestment in a boom cycle. This inevitably leads to an unavoidable bust. We end off by discussing the concept of a crack-up boom.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 2 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- explain how the market gross interest rate is calculated;
- describe how interest rates are a measure of capital availability for production;
- explain how Inflationary credit expansion can lead to illusory profits and less savings;
- describe how malinvestment is brought about by credit expansion and miscalculation; and
- evaluate whether a final collapse can be avoided after an economic boom brought about by credit expansion.
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Austrian Business Cycle Theory is an economic theory that describes how the business cycle works. According to the theory, the business cycle unfolds as follows: low interest rates encourage borrowing, which leads to increased capital spending financed by new bank loans. In this lecture, Saifedean explains what the Austrian Business cycle entails.
Topics covered include:
- Malinvestment
- Interest rates and economic calculation
- How the expansion of credit causes miscalculation
- The inevitability of a bust after an economic boom
Key points:
- Inflation expectations lead to less savings
- Illusory profits lead to increased consumption
- Collapse cannot be avoided; the boom should be avoided in the first place
- The essence of the credit-expansion boom is not overinvestment, but malinvestment
- Market interest rate is: Originary interest + entrepreneurial risk + price premium
- Austrian theory does not predict how long a boom will last, only that it will stop when credit expansion stops
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 6, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- The Cantillon effect
- Are we in or close to a liquidation phase of the ABC
- How the US "exports" its inflation to the rest of the world
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Unit 7 builds on Mises’ analysis of the business cycle by introducing the work of Professor Roger Garrison, who expanded on the work of Hayek in the 1930s and 1940s to build an excellent graphical exposition of the Austrian business cycle theory. In this unit, you will explore the theory in greater detail by looking at Garrison's presentation and discussing how saving through deferred consumption increases production.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 2 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- describe the Intertemporal structure of production and the Hayekian triangle;
- explain how the lowering of time preference can lead to a higher level of investment;
- describe how foregoing consumption in the short term will lead to more production in the long term; and
- explain how the issuance of fiduciary credit can lead to overinvestment and overconsumption.
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For many years, economists have pondered the causes of business cycles and how to deal with them. For example, Keynesian economists believe that recessions are a symptom of a lack of aggregate demand, and it is the government's prerogative to stimulate aggregate demand through spending, consumption, investment, and exports. In contrast to the Keynesian view, which emphasizes the importance of periods of recession, the Austrian view is that the expansionary period of the business cycle is the beginning of the business cycle. In this lecture, Saifedean looks at the different stages of production and how malinvestment can lead to a boom, overconsumption, unsustainable growth, and disturbances in the labor market.
Topics covered include:
- The issuance of fiduciary credit
- The concept of the intertemporal structure of production
- The relationship between an individual's time preference and their propensity to invest
- The economic principle that involves deferring immediate consumption to foster greater production
Key points:
- There is a trade-off between consumption and investment
- Saving through deferred consumption increases early-stage production
- Overconsumption and overinvestment is unsustainable and inevitably leads to a bust
- An increase in fiduciary media leads to overconsumption, overinvestment, and malinvestment
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 7, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- Debt vs. equity for financing
- Other effects of fiat money on the economy
- The futures market as seen through an Austrian lens
- The correlation between savings rates and economic growth
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In unit 8 you are challenged to think about security and defense in terms of spontaneous emergent order. Can they emerge in a market? Why and why not? We focus on the work of Hans-Hermann Hoppe and discuss the Hobbesian myth and the positive case for security as a private good. We question whether governments should have a monopoly on security and defense and explore other possible alternatives to this question.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 2 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- describe how security and defense can be considered a good and why a government monopoly on any good, including defense, leads to higher prices, reduced quantity, and restricted variety for consumers;
- explain the Hobbesian myth;
- evaluate the positive case for the privatization of security and defense; and
- explain how the privatization of security would lead to a better product for consumers.
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Monopolies are usually bad for consumers. For example, AT&T was highly profitable as a legal monopoly in the 1970s, and in 1984, the company was broken up into seven regional telephone carriers due to government intervention. The breakup gave consumers access to more choices and lower prices.
Should the government have a monopoly on security? The challenge for citizens is the balance between security from those who do us harm and security from government agencies like the NSA, which has the right under the Patriot Act to check an individual's emails and phone messages. There is a case to be made for the privatization of security and defense. Watch this lecture to understand why it would be better for consumers if security and defense were privatized.
Topics covered include:
- Hobbesian myth
- Consequences of a government monopoly on defense • Arguments in favor of privatizing security and defense services
Key points:
- A monopoly in security is bad for consumers
- Private security is not only possible but will be far better for consumers
- The Hobbesian myth: In the state of nature, a permanent “underproduction” of security would prevail
- Constitutions don't fulfill their role in limiting governments because the government itself interprets and enforces the constitution
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 8, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- Existential crisis and how humans react
- Rivalry and excludability in public goods
- How gun ownership relates to private defense
- Security and Defence under different political and economic systems
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Can you own an idea? This 9th unit looks at the concept of intellectual property from the Austrian perspective. Topics include libertarianism, self-ownership, property rights, and the state's role in legislating them. We discuss the work of Stephan Kinsella on patents and copyrights.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 3 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- explain how the scarcity of a resource can prompt individuals to declare property rights over it;
- explain the relationship between libertarian political philosophy and the market economy;
- identify the elements of legitimate property;
- differentiate between natural law and legislation;
- explain the concept of intellectual property rights and why some consider it illegitimate; and
- evaluate the different problems with patents.
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Property may be defined as an exclusive right to control an economic good and is derived from scarcity. How, then, could it be possible to own an idea if it is not scarce? Watch this video lecture to understand the fundamental concepts of property rights and the problems caused by intellectual property laws.
Topics covered include:
- Challenges with patents
- Natural law vs. legislation
- Scarcity and property rights
- Elements of legitimate property
- Intellectual property controversy
- Libertarianism and the market economy
Key points:
- Patents stifle innovation and cause endless litigation
- Intellectual property laws are simply state grants of monopoly privilege
- First mover advantage provides enough motivation to encourage innovation
- Property comes from scarcity. It is the scarcity of a resource that urges individuals to declare property rights over it
- Libertarianism revolves around the idea that no man or group of men may aggress against the person or property of anyone else
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 9, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- The FDA system and its huge regulatory burden
- Would there be less innovation without government intervention?
- What would the legal profession look like without intellectual property laws?
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You have reached the final unit of the course - well done! In unit 10 we look at the relation between Bitcoin and Austrian Economics. Being a free market non-governmental money, Bitcoin's fixed supply is discussed. We conclude the unit by discussing the Stock-to-Flow Model (S2F) model.
Completing this unit should take you approximately 3 hours.
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Upon successful completion of this unit, you will be able to:
- explain how money can emerge on the free market without government intervention;
- explain the relationship between government-issued money and opportunity cost; and
- explain how Bitcoin's predetermined stock to flow ratio could be viewed as an economic constant.
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Bitcoin and the Austrian school relate to each other in many ways. Watch this lecture as we discuss the characteristics of Bitcoin, especially its fixed and predictable supply. The now famous stock-to-flow model, as first described by PlanB, seems to be unexplainably accurate. Could it be that Bitcoin introduces the first constant in economic calculation?
Topics covered include:
- Money emergence on the free market
- Government-issued money and opportunity cost
- Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio as an economic constant
Key points:
- Bitcoin's supply is fixed and predictable
- Bitcoin is an example of how money can emerge on the free market
- The S2F model, based on Bitcoin's fundamentals, could be the first example of accurate economic modeling
- This predictability causes less uncertainty about the future and enables people to lower their time preference
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Since you have watched the video lecture for unit 10, it's time to watch Saifedean moderate a discussion on the unit's theme by addressing questions asked by your fellow classmates. As you watch the discussion unfold, take notes to help you retain information. Make sure you watch the entire discussion seminar video; otherwise, you may skip over important points. To get the best learning experience and mastery of the major concepts covered in this unit, you'll want to watch all videos in their entirety.
Topics discussed include:
- Causation vs causality
- Human action vs. econometrics
- The Misesian view on data analytics
- Further clarification and questions about the S2F model
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Take this exam if you want to earn a free Course Completion Certificate.
To receive a free Course Completion Certificate, you will need to earn a grade of 70% or higher on this final exam. Your grade for the exam will be calculated as soon as you complete it. If you do not pass the exam on your first try, you can take it again as many times as you want, with a 7-day waiting period between each attempt.
Once you pass this final exam, you will be awarded a free Course Completion Certificate.
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