Introduction to Probability
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There is a debate about how to interpret probability. All three of these can be ways to think of probability.
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The forecast would have only been wrong if it had predicted a 100% chance of rain. However, the probability assessments are wrong if, over time, it usually doesn't rain on days where an 80% chance of rain is predicted.
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We will deal with very few probabilities that are zero (definitely will not happen) or one (definitely will happen).