Abstract

The article examines the phenomenon of the political longevity of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The subject of the study is the second period of her chancellorship (2013–2021), as few German leaders have managed to stay in office longer than two terms. The author analyses in detail what objective factors and personal qualities helped Merkel to win the 2013 and 2017 elections, overcome declining personal popularity and objective voter fatigue, and get through all crises, including the migration crisis and COVID-19. The article examines how the tactics and strategy of the first female chancellor have transformed in response to changing political conditions. It explores the tools with which Merkel built her image as nonpartisan leader of the nation, and how she became a hostage to the image she created in 2015. The decision to accept refugees was a turning point in Merkel's career; thus, the author pays particular attention to the ways in which she helped maintain her chancellorship. The paper uses the theory of how women's leadership differs from men's. The conclusion is drawn that Merkel developed her own special personal method of securing power and maintaining the image she needs. The main secret of her success is not the use of force but quick learning and adaptation, based on her instinct for political survival.

Keywords: leadership, power, elections, chancellor, FRG, A. Merkel, "people's parties," opposition, migration crisis, COVID-19, success rhetoric, democracy, image

Angela Merkel has the ability to extend her political lifespan. She headed the German government for 16 years from 2005 to 2021. Before her, only Helmut Kohl, who entered the history of Germany as the unifying chancellor of the country, had been at the top of power for so long. Four times German citizens voted for Merkel and the CDU. At favorable moments in her political career, three words - "you know me" - were enough for her to win the elections. In difficult times, one phrase - "we will manage" - was enough to split German society and cause hatred for herself and the migration course among a significant part of the citizens.

According to Joschka Fischer, the former of Foreign Affairs of Gerhard Schroeder's red-green cabinet (1998–2005), Merkel spoiled her "rendezvous with history" with the beginning of the euro crisis. However, during her tenure as chancellor of Germany, Merkel, unlike her predecessors, had not one but several significant "meetings with history": the banking crisis of 2008, the euro crisis of 2010, the migration events of 2015, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Each time it was about specific problems that required quick and far-reaching strategic decisions in the absence of ready-made recipes. All these dramas took place not at the level of a nation-state but in the world arena. There were no proven tools that politicians could use. In fact, Merkel had to become a "politician-fireman".

In November 2015, in a speech dedicated to the memory of German Chancellor H. Schmidt (SPD), Merkel noted that "the achievements of this politician were especially noticeable in the way he dealt with crises". This criterion applies to Merkel herself. International crises changed not only the chancellor's approach to governing the country, her style, and original goals, but also Germany's position in the world. For many decades, the German government has sought not to be left alone in the international arena. However, the euro crisis, which revealed the economic weakness of France; the exit of Britain from the EU; the US refusal to lead the military-moral role in the West, which was a gradual process under the presidency of B. Obama and devastating under D. Trump; and the danger of war in Ukraine brought Germany to a new level of political influence, increasing its importance in Europe and the world. It was Merkel's image - a modest and open leader, willing to compromise and firmly on her feet - that helped Germany's neighbors to accept its new role. Under the circumstances, the chancellor managed to achieve the maximum possible for her country, while using a minimum of external domination.

Foreign observers began to analyze the phenomenon of Merkel's longevity earlier than German political scientists and more closely than their colleagues, who probably believed that they had studied the chancellor thoroughly by the third election period. However, the policy of "open doors" for migrants in 2015 turned out to be unexpected for many experts. A significant part of recent research in Germany falls on this period and is devoted to the analysis of the reasons that prompted Merkel to accept a huge flow of refugees, as well as the transformation of her leadership after these events. In Russian political science, two scientific centers can be distinguished that consistently analyze Merkel's domestic and foreign policy: the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Special attention needs to be paid to the works of N.V. Pavlov, Dr. Sci. (Hist.), and A.A. Derevyanchenko.

The controversial decision in 2015 led Merkel to her gradual loss of power and popularity. After the forced repetition of the "grand coalition" following the results of the election to the Bundestag in 2017 and the voluntary resignation of the CDU chair, many political scientists predicted her early departure from the post of chancellor.

The weakening of the power resource and the promise to leave politics at the end of the fourth term of office led to the fact that, on the one hand, Merkel turned into a "lame duck," and on the other hand, the accumulated international prestige and the lack of need to compete for the fifth time gave her more freedom of action. It is no coincidence that in 2017, after the unpredictable Donald Trump was elected president in the United States, the world community recognized the German chancellor as the main defender of democracy and Western values.

This article analyzes the methods of securing the chancellor on the political Olympus of Germany, the transformation of her image and decisions that contributed to the preservation of power over the last legislative periods. Merkel's foreign policy activities are not included in the study, as they are a separate topic for investigation.


CONCLUSIONS

The scale of a politician is determined by the extent to which he/she corresponds to his/her time. During the chancellorship of Merkel, the familiar and stable world began to change rapidly. In foreign policy, the transformation of the postwar structure began; in domestic policy, the pandemic had an unexpected impact on the usual way of life. Having survived the collapse of the GDR in 1989/1990, she was probably better prepared than other Western colleagues for modern challenges.

Merkel began to lead the country as a "chancellor of change," but quickly realized that the conservative German voters were afraid of drastic changes. Therefore, she tried not to impose radical reforms on them. The exception was the abolition of compulsory military service and the rejection of nuclear energy. Yet even here, she acted rather forcedly, following the moods of her citizens. This harmony ended in 2015 with the admission of a large number of refugees. Merkel could no longer protect Germany from world problems and entered a conflict the core of which was the choice between national security interests and openness to the world.

Merkel's main principles in politics were pragmatism and minimum risk. She tried not to associate the political projects of the government with personal authority. Her main strategy is "asymmetric demobilization," the goal of which is to form positive associations among voters. She turned this skill into a serious weapon against the opposition. Merkel strove to avoid criticism and direct clashes. Even being on the verge of impeachment, she did not dare to use her "chancellor's competence" and dismiss the obstinate Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer in 2018. In fact, Kohl turned out to be the only politician in her career against whom she spoke out openly and decisively.11 Regardless of the motives, this decision turned out to be justified for Merkel and ensured her career take-off.

She fought with other rivals within her own party carefully and quietly. She sent some, like Federal Minister for the Environment Norbert Röttgen in 2012, to conquer the state election. It gave others the opportunity to subdue their ardor in the ministerial field: for example, the two main critics of her political course, Seehofer and Jens Spahn, received in 2017 the portfolios of ministers of the interior and health, respectively. Decisions that she could not influence, she presented as consensual and approved by her personally. Although from the outside, such actions can be interpreted as concessions and a sign of weakness, the example of Merkel proves that in a modern democratic society the secret of "political longevity" lies not in the use of force and "pushing through" the positions of others but in the ability to use forced retreats for one's own purposes, find advantages in them, and turn them into successful strategies.

Merkel's ability to pass off the merits and results of coalition governments as her own decisions and achievements seriously weakened her partners, while at the same time helping to strengthen her authority. The results of the election campaigns show that she managed to stay in office, despite significant losses and defeats of the CDU. This is contrary to the popular belief that voters perceive parties and candidates in aggregate. Merkel managed to create an image of a nonpartisan politician thanks to effective moderation and the ability to compromise. The decisive factor in retaining power was her leadership style, which guaranteed voters that she would definitely find the right solution and come to a consensus.

During the 16 years of chancellorship, Merkel's image underwent a major transformation. She was called a "political killer," compared with Margaret Thatcher; considered a follower; accused of lack of goals; admired for her ability to find compromises and get through crises; and recognized as a chancellor with a "firm hand" and a pragmatist who firmly stood on the ground. One constant was her ability to change quickly. Learning and a scientific-pragmatic approach had become the main secret of her success. Politician Merkel won all these years because she effectively applied Darwin's theory of evolution to political processes, according to which survival is not about strength but about adaptability.

Source: E. P. Timoshenkova
View original source.
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.